Summary
This study proposes a top-down model to evaluate carbon trajectories in operational commercial buildings in China up to 2060, using Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis to assess carbon peak values and optimize provincial carbon allocation schemes.
Highlights
- China's commercial building sector is projected to reach its carbon peak before 2030 under both BAU and decarbonization scenarios.
- The nationwide carbon peak for commercial building operations is projected to reach 890 MtCO2 by 2028 under the BAU scenario.
- Shandong's carbon peak is projected at 69.6 MtCO2, approximately 11 times higher than Ningxia's peak.
- East China's reduction allocation of 18.1 MtCO2 will exceed the lowest emission regions by 6.7 times.
- The top three provinces requiring the most significant reductions in the commercial sector are Xinjiang, Shandong, and Henan.
- The study offers optimized provincial carbon allocation strategies within the commercial building sector in China.
- The goal is to hit the carbon peak target and progress toward a low-carbon future for the building sector.
Key Insights
- The study uses a top-down approach to evaluate carbon trajectories in operational commercial buildings, providing a comprehensive understanding of China's commercial building sector's carbon emissions.
- The results show significant disparities in carbon emission peaks among provinces, highlighting the need for region-specific policies to address these differences.
- The study's findings emphasize the importance of optimizing provincial carbon allocation schemes to achieve the national carbon peak target and promote low-carbon development in the building sector.
- The use of Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis allows for the incorporation of uncertainties in key parameters, providing a more robust and reliable assessment of carbon emission peaks and provincial allocations.
- The study's results have important policy implications, highlighting the need for integrated energy conservation and low-carbon principles in building design, as well as the promotion of clean energy and green technologies.
- The study's approach and findings can be applied to other countries and regions, providing a valuable framework for evaluating and optimizing carbon emission reduction strategies in the building sector.
- The study's emphasis on provincial-level analysis and region-specific policies underscores the importance of considering local contexts and disparities in developing effective carbon emission reduction strategies.
Mindmap
Citation
Deng, Y., Ma, M., Zhou, N., Zou, C., Ma, Z., Yan, R., & Ma, X. (2024). Provincial allocation of China’s commercial building operational carbon towards carbon neutrality (Version 1). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/ARXIV.2412.14523